Recent data from Glassnode reveals a dramatic 50% decline in Bitcoin’s “hot supply”—coins actively traded within a week—over recent months, signaling reduced speculative activity as markets brace for potential price volatility. The metric’s contraction reflects dwindling short-term trading appetite, with daily exchange inflows dropping from 58,600 BTC to 26,900 BTC since Bitcoin’s March peak. Analysts suggest this trend indicates a shift toward long-term holding, historically preceding bullish cycles, as only 15% of circulating supply remains in short-term wallets, the lowest level ever recorded.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price has consolidated between $80,000 and $83,000 after retreating 25% from its all-time high of $109,114. Traders now eye key technical levels for an imminent breakout. Technical charts highlight a narrowing symmetrical triangle pattern, with critical resistance at $106,000 and support near $90,500. A decisive move above resistance could fuel a rally toward new highs, while a breakdown might trigger a dip to $73,000. The Stochastic RSI on 4-hour and daily timeframes shows momentum building, with a crossover above 20.00 potentially accelerating upward movement.
Futures markets echo the cooling speculation, as open interest plunged 35% amid lowered liquidity. Despite the lull, long-term holders have largely refrained from selling, reducing immediate sell pressure. Veteran analyst Peter Brandt emphasized the significance of the current price range, noting that a breakout—either upward or downward—will likely define Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming weeks.
Sources:
https://coinedition.com/bitcoin-speculative-trading-loses-steam-is-trumps-crypto-push-to-blame/
https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-705519-20250319
https://uk.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/bitcoin-btc-approaches-breakout-up-or-down-3854596
